Summer 2026 Power Markets Outlook
August 2023 was the first time ERCOT hit 80 gigawatts. It happened 17 times that month. The 2026 setup mirrors it: 2023 analog year weighting, drought conditions across Texas, and below-average wind expected across most of the country.
We've covered all 8 ISOs with month-by-month heat rate forecasts, supply stack analysis, congestion outlooks, and bull and bear scenarios.
What's inside
- ERCOT: hot, dry, and low wind, with 80 GW peaks on the table in August
- JM: reserves genuinely tight, capacity market in structural transition
- CAISO: Sunzia and EDAM reshaping evening price formation
- NYISO and ISO-NE: CHPE and NECEC changed where congestion lives, not just whether it exists
- Mid-C: a two-basin hydro story with opposite conditions on each side of the border
- SPP and MISO: where southern heat spreads and when
